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Friday, November 19, 2010

Letters from the Future

Imagine receiving the following letter from the Internal Revenue Service:

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To: The _________________ Family

From: The United States Internal Revenue Service

Date: November 18, 2060

This letter serves as official notice of your family’s obligation under the 2060 Federal Reclamation of Earnings Act (FREACT). This Act was recently passed unanimously by the United States House and Senate, approved by the President on November 1, 2060, and formally validated by the Associated Western Financial Union League governing body. As such, this Act is officially binding.

Section 8 of the FREACT reads as follows:

“(A) All families that were documented citizens of the United States or otherwise received benefits commensurate with such citizenship as of January 1, 2010, shall hereby be held liable for their portion of the Federal Debt as of October 31, 2010. This liability shall consist of three factors:

1. Your individual proportionate share of the Federal Debt principal value as of October 31, 2010.
2. Interest on the proportional share of Debt compounded at 8% per year. Interest takes into account estimated interest costs as well as the estimated impact of inflation.
3. An average currency depreciation factor of .5 to account for the continued weakening dollar due in part to the Federal Debt for which your family is responsible.
4. The size of your family. FREACT deems adults responsible for the liabilities of the children living in their household as of January 1, 2010.”
(see: FREACT, 11.18.60, Section 8.A)

To assist you in understanding your family’s specific obligation, the IRS has provided the following example:

Individual Share of Federal Debt - $13.7 Trillion / 301 million individuals = $43,854
Interest Accrued at 8% per year for 50 years = $2,056,815 (gold bullion)
0.50 factor applied for all payments made in $US Dollars = $4,113,630 (current $US)
All adults and children living in your household (e.g. f=5) = $20,568,149

FREACT was crafted and passed to address the highly destructive use of debt that only became more ingrained in the functioning of American society in subsequent years. While the Federal government of 2060 considered collecting by going back to the citizenry of 1945 when an expansive Federal government became most notable, it was decided that receiving letters from the future would be truly disconcerting and may even cause permanent psychological damage. As well, that generation had already endured World War I, The Great Depression, and World War II. By 2010, our records indicate that most Americans were sufficiently sophisticated and jaded that such a letter would be bothersome but cause no cruel or unusual punishment.

For those of you who may wonder at the ability of IRS to forward this letter to your attention, let us assure you that our actions are fully authorized by the Comprehensive Federal Jurisdiction Act of 2056, which empowered the IRS and other government agencies to seek a redress of grievances from citizens, past present and future. As you can imagine, given that most citizens’ personal data is available in a variety of media and forums, it is well within future technological competence to ensure that you have reached this letter. Also, be assured that we know you have opened and read the contents of this letter. Protestations to the contrary will not be permitted.

Per Section 9 of the FREACT, you may forward your payments via two methods.
1. If paying in currency (2010) $US Dollars, you may pay by credit card to the future US Treasury via the Web Portal on the back of this letter. As you may have guessed, by 2060 it is possible to make currency transactions across time periods and currency regimes. FREACT mandates that payments may NOT be made to the current US Treasury due to concerns that such funds will not be reserved for future use as intended. Recall that payments in $US Dollars require a .50 depreciation factor, effectively doubling your payment.

2. If paying in gold bullion, please indicate as such via the same Web Portal. A courier will be sent from 2060 to collect all bullion payments during the last week of December. Bear in mind that payments in gold bullion do NOT require the .50 discount. Payments by shares of gold related exchange traded funds, mutual funds, hedge funds, or other securitized vehicles will not be accepted, nor will shares in gold producing companies.

If you have any questions, please call your congressional representatives as they represent the current and future. Bear in mind that your current representatives also are just receiving this information and may have similar questions. Also, remember that in some instances, your future representatives may not yet be born and certainly are not aware that FREACT will be passed in 2060. Their lack of ability to respond to your questions at this time does not in any way absolve you of your obligation, financial or otherwise, to your future fellow citizens.

You may not contact the future to lodge complaints. The citizens of 2060 had no say on the debt you issued on our behalf; you have no say on how those citizens elect to pay for it. As you may have guessed, nonpayment is not an option. We can assure you that the means for securing payment in 2060 are far more advanced than they were in 2010. While FREACT authorizes the use of iBrain technology (version 3.0) in managing your behavior, voluntary cooperation is desired.

We here at the Internal Revenue Service appreciate your prompt compliance with FREACT and know that you recognize its critical role in reestablishing America as a solvent, even vibrant economic power in the future. We are sure that you have at times wished that your predecessors could have adopted different policies and practices; thus, we are confident that you will respect our desire to do so now that the technological capabilities have made doing so possible.

Thank you in advance for your support.

Sincerely,
The Internal Revenue Service

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Science fiction? Perhaps, though, it might be interesting if the US Treasury was required to forward a simple annual report every year to each citizen outlining in plain English the size and nature of our Federal debt. Of course, a similar overview of the spending would be nice as well. In the meantime, we’ll just get busy growing the economy and keeping an eye out for letters from the future.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Underwhelming Forces

This week, Syntrinsic has invited guest columnist, E. Pluribus Unum, to comment on the global credit crisis. When it comes to currency, few possess Unum’s heads-up insight or universal appeal.

US Dollars Underwhelm Opposing Forces
(Berlin, Tokyo, Washington DC)—E.P. Unum

While most Americans have been caught up in the drama of the mid-term elections, a real battle has been waging that touches every American household. Reports from the frontlines indicate that the United States is clashing with former WWII adversaries Japan and Germany, cold war antagonist Russia, and emerging economies from Asia to Latin America. Casualties are mounting and the main victim thus far is America’s standing in the world.

This is not simply a battle over territory or natural resources, nor one of faith or ideology or pride. On the other hand, it is a battle for all of these elements, for the conflict is one of economic strength not political power; the primary armaments are currencies, not bullets; and the battlefield is not some forest or hilltop but the sacred ground of the global capital markets.

Like so many geopolitical conflicts, there has been a long escalation of the underlying tension, so much so that there is no one event, person, or date that marks the Beginning of the crisis. Globalization has opened markets and election polls, technology has democratized most information in most of the world, and consumer appetites have steadily grown, changing the definition of middle class and its cost. Throughout this intensification, the developed world has relentlessly grown its leverage.

If the other factors have been kindling, then leverage has been the gasoline poured atop the wood pile. All that was missing was a match. The US housing market became that primary catalyst, with help from housing markets in Western Europe, financial engineers in New York and London, and other minor players. And the currency race to the bottom was on.

Sure, on the surface, American diplomats have been discussing stimulating jobs, reassuring consumers, and keeping people in their homes. But in times such as these, it is critical to look past the posturing. While the diplomats have been holding press conferences, America’s top financial generals have been on a heavy recruitment drive, boosting enlistment from all quarters so that they can flood the domestic and foreign markets with green troops and thus overwhelm our economic competitors. They have scrounged in all corners for recruits, lowered standards, and even gone so far as to assign the same soldiers to multiple missions at the same time. Despite early claims that they would not do so, they have reassigned dollars that had been propping up mortgage backed bonds to now prop up Treasury Bonds instead of sending them home as promised.

Just this past week, the Federal Reserve (not the Pentagon, but a Federal agency similarly tight lipped about its long-term strategy) committed to throwing another 600 billion soldiers into the fight against—well, you know. Each month, waves of 75 billion troops are expected to march out of their headquarters in Washington DC and off to the brutal capital markets where they will confront Yen and Euros and any other currency that dares to be weak.

Out on the battlefield, their mission is simple: drive down the cost of American exports. Make it cheaper to do business with America and concurrently, more expensive to do business with everyone else. This conflict is not based on skill or intrigue; rather, it is a simple confrontation that will be won by numbers and sheer chutzpah. Who’s willing to do what the others will not or cannot do?

“I don’t care how hard they try to keep their currencies stable, when the battle is over, we will be the weakest currency out there,” claimed an anonymous Treasury Sergeant, “or we aren’t American dollars.”

“That’s right,” said an unnamed member of the banking special forces. “Look, our way of life is at stake. You gotta do what you gotta do. If the Japanese try to keep the Yen from strengthening, then we’ll just out-print them. They’ve kept their interest rates near 0% for 20+ years. It’s our turn. We’ve saved the banks. Paying nothing on their deposits will help banks become profitable again. Who can argue with that?”

Another commentator noted that, “If the EU thinks that we’ll just roll over and let our currency appreciate, then they don’t know modern America. Sure we’ve got special relationships, but we’ve got a lifestyle to maintain here.”

In past confrontations such as World War II, the US relied upon a vibrant, growing population, superior natural resources, and robust manufacturing and capital markets to outmatch its opponents. Today, it is America’s superior printing presses and the unabashed confidence to use them that has put our global competitors on the run.

Look at the casualties so far: Versus the US dollar, the Yen has appreciated by 13% since May, while the Euro has increased by 17% since June. Even the Polish Zloty has gained 19% during the same period. In short, it’s a rout. No one is really even close. It’s an American triumph. Start the ticker tape (parade).

American success is sparking angry reactions around the globe. Brazil’s President-elect, Dilma Rousseff accused America of recreating the competitive currency devaluation environment that led up to WWII. And according to the Wall Street Journal, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schlauble claimed that the Federal Reserve is “undermining the credibility of U.S. financial policy. It just doesn’t add up when the Americans accuse the Chinese of currency manipulation and then, with the help of their central bank’s printing presses, artificially lower the value of the dollar.” But one would expect America’s competitors to complain; they are losing the devaluation battle and they know it.

The battle is still in its early stages, but America’s financial generals have made clear their commitment to keeping the US dollar weak and they aren’t going to change course just because it upsets our European allies and global trading partners.

Of course, not everyone is upset. In a moment of candor, one unnamed strategist from a certain middle kingdom commented, “Oh, we complain on the surface, but it is just an act. Imagine if your greatest adversary kept weakening himself on purpose, every day, giving away more control, more power, more influence. Really, you could not dream up such a situation. When the dollar has become too weak, people around the world will look for another currency. And we’ll be waiting. It may be our children, or even our grandchildren, but we’ll be waiting. They may win today’s battle, but we will win the war.”

Friday, November 5, 2010

Next Door

Two years ago, a homeowner from the former Motor City described watering and mowing the lawn of an abandoned home next door. She hoped to keep out potential trespassers, preserve the value of her home, and maintain some semblance of normalcy in a once-thriving neighborhood. It seemed at the time to be a tale from a distant land, a desperate, broken corner of America where unemployment hovers between 30-50%. An exception.

A few weeks ago, in Denver (unemployment: 8%) a homeowner in one of the city’s newest, most vibrant neighborhoods found himself in a similar situation. Wells Fargo Mortgage had (reluctantly) become the new neighbor after the previous resident left, taking not just the family, but also most of the appliances and fixtures. The abandoned lawn had reached knee-height and the bushes had grown out over the sidewalk. The police had been called at least once regarding suspicious activity. Detroit had arrived next door.

So you mow your neighbor’s yard and trim back their bushes because it must be done and you tell your friends about the phenomenal deal, a house selling for just 60% of its 2006 purchase price. You cringe when the appraisers tell you what they guess your house might be worth and you make peace with realizing that your reliable American mobility is neither. And it’s not all bad, because Denver is not such a bad city in which to be stuck; it’s just strange accepting such a concept.

That’s the easy part.

The hard part comes when you open the paper to find that many Americans have been living rent-free for many months (“The Stealth Stimulus of Defaulters Living for Free,” Wall Street Journal , November 1, 2010). According to LPS Analytics, the average borrower whose home is in the foreclosure process has not made a payment in 16 months. That’s 1.33 years. These borrowers are still living in their homes but not paying to do so. Nationwide, the WSJ estimates that the situation equates to about $2.6 billion per month in rent-free housing. That’s a lot of revenue not being paid by borrowers or received by lenders, many of whom have recently been kept afloat by taxpayers. The situation drives a complex set of new social conditions that raise innumerable questions.

I. Rent-Free Residents
Some find good news in the situation, arguing that perhaps some of that money is enabling people to buy food and other necessaries during a difficult time, or to sock savings away for when they are finally compelled to move out. In truth, no one knows how that money is being spent, but ideally it is indeed buying people some time on meeting basic needs.
· Assuming that several million American families are currently living rent free, what happens when they can no longer do so? Where will they go?
· If the banks are currently subsidizing the living arrangements of these millions, then who will subsidize them going forward when they no longer are allowed to live in the homes? Nonprofit organizations such as Rescue Missions and the Salvation Army that already face capacity and funding constraints? Municipalities already overwhelmed by financial obligations? Friends and relatives already under strain? No one?

II. Banks as Homeowners
Banks now own 1 million homes in the US. Another 5.2 million homes are either in the foreclosure process or at least a few months late on mortgage payments.
· What happens as banks own an ever increasing part of the residential real estate market?
· How might this change their relationship to the communities they serve around the country?
· Assuming that many banks are striving to get these properties off their books as quickly as possible, how does their fire-sale pricing impair the broader housing market?
· Since banks remain a primary source of mortgage financing, what does it mean that they are potentially lending to buyers who seek to buy homes from the bank’s own inventory?
· If there are about 75 million owner occupied homes in the US (US Census, 3Q2010) and somewhere north of 5 million are under severe financial stress so far, then aren’t we farther from the end of this crisis than the beginning?

III. The Paperwork Fiasco
Bank of America now services over 14 million loans, 1.3 million of which are at least 60 days late on mortgage payments (“BofA Tries to Untangle Files,” WSJ, 11/1/10). Regulators and some state Attorneys General, however, have ordered Bank of America and other lenders to review the paperwork on hundreds of thousands of foreclosures already in process, alleging that some paperwork may not be 100% complete due to sloppy record-keeping during the height of the mortgage boom, especially at firms like Countrywide which the Treasury Department “strongly encouraged” Bank of America to acquire at the height of the crisis.
· How will slowing down the foreclosure process delay the healing of the residential real estate market?
· What happens if regulators forbid banks from pursuing a material number of foreclosures and yet residents do not fulfill their mortgage payments? Who litigates that situation? Can the bank still sell the home to recoup its loan?
· What obligation does the resident bear if the resident has no intention of becoming the rightful homeowner?
· Given that homeownership would be in limbo, who pays the municipal taxes? If no one does, how does this compound woes already faced by many municipalities? What recourse do the municipalities have, if any? Whose authority trumps whose—the AG’s office, banking regulators, county court, arbitrators…?

All three of these themes reflect a rapidly and dramatically changing culture of homeownership in America. As a society we are fundamentally altering the relationship between regulators and lenders, lenders and borrowers, and homeowners and their neighbors. No one party is explicitly driving this process; thus no one party can be blamed or held accountable, nor can any one party lead us out of this morass. As is the case with most pandemics, there are many actors involved, each confronted by a set of seemingly insurmountable challenges, and there are many intangibles that defy modeling or regulating.

In every neighborhood, there are good people struggling through these difficult circumstances, people who may not have told their closest friends that they are on the brink of losing their homes. It’s a sobering time.

We agree that there are many critical issues in Washington and in state houses around the country that require addressing, but we would argue that a far more concentrated and concerted effort on the housing crisis from courageous political and banking leaders could do more to turn the mood of Americans than almost anything else. For when a people are unstable in their homes, the rest of their lives are tossed into tumult. Workplaces, schools, neighborhoods, houses of worship—all suffer when people do not have a place. There have always been those amongst us without a home, but the number of those who are no longer secure in their home is higher than it has been in decades.

Printing money will not change the fundamental structural shifts in America’s relationship with our homes, nor restore confidence in an essential element of the American Dream. We need more. We need brave leadership. We need a Midway, an Inchon. We need Washington to cross the Delaware in the dead of winter against all odds to take Trenton. We need a win and we need it to be at home. Or at least next door.